Dynamics of violence and firearms in Ecuador: spatial patterns and challenges in ballistic traceability for investigative purposes
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.64217/logosguardiacivil.v4i2.9062Keywords:
intentional homicide, ghost guns, organized crime, ballistics análisisAbstract
The analysis of lethal violence dynamics in Ecuador reveals a profound transformation in the country's public security landscape, characterized by an exponential increase in homicide rates, reaching a historic level of 51 homicides per 100,000 inhabitants in 2025. The temporal stability of crime concentration was demonstrated through the application of spatial autocorrelation techniques and the Local Moran’s Index, which identified the existence of micro-territories with persistently high levels of criminal activity, such as Durán Canton. The recurrence of violent incidents provides evidence that crime tends to concentrate in the same locations over time, as observed in several micro-areas that continue to exhibit elevated levels of violence for prolonged periods. The analysis of lethal violence dynamics in Ecuador reveals a profound transformation in the country's public security landscape, characterized by an exponential increase in homicide rates, reaching a historic level of 51 homicides per 100,000 inhabitants in 2025. The temporal stability of crime concentration was demonstrated through the application of spatial autocorrelation techniques and the Local Moran’s Index, which identified the existence of micro-territories with persistently high levels of criminal activity, such as Durán Canton. The recurrence of violent incidents provides evidence that crime tends to concentrate in the same locations over time, as observed in several micro-areas that continue to exhibit elevated levels of violence for prolonged periods.
Likewise, the findings highlight the central role of firearms in the commission of homicides, generating significant technical challenges for forensic investigations. The emergence of ghost guns manufactured through 3D printing technologies and computer numerical control (CNC) machining has complicated traditional methods of firearm control, tracing, and identification. Furthermore, the comparison between legally manufactured firearms and suspicious weapons reveals that the increasing sophistication of replicas and technical modifications makes it considerably more difficult to determine serial numbers and establish the origin and traceability of firearms
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